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Economic growth of the continent: Africa will exceed global forecasts in 2023-2024

Economic growth of the continent: Africa will exceed global forecasts in 2023-2024: Africa’s economic growth is expected to outpace that of the rest of the world over the next two years, with real gross domestic product (GDP) averaging around 4% in 2023 and 2024.

Economic growth of the continent: Africa will exceed global forecasts in 2023-2024

This figure is higher than the expected global averages of 2.7% and 3.2%, the African Development Bank Group said in its semi-annual report: “Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Prospects”, unveiled recently in Abidjan, in Ivory Coast.

The report indicates that despite the confluence of multiple shocks, growth in the five African regions was positive in 2022 and the outlook for 2023-2024 is expected to be stable. Thus in Central Africa – growth supported by favorable commodity prices, is estimated to have been the fastest on the continent at 4.7%, against 3.6% in 2021.

For Southern Africa, growth has slowed the most, falling from 4.3% in 2021 to around 2.5% in 2022, the report notes. The slowdown stems from weak growth in South Africa, where rising interest rates, weak domestic demand and persistent power cuts weighed on the economy.

On the other hand, in West Africa, growth is expected to slow to 3.6% in 2022, from 4.4% in 2021. This is due to slowdowns in Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, the two largest economies of the region. Nigeria’s growth in 2023 – although affected by Covid-19, insecurity and weak oil production despite rising international oil prices – could benefit from ongoing efforts to restore security in this producing region of troubled oil.

Calls for robust monetary and fiscal measures

As for North Africa, growth is expected to decline by 1.1%, from 5.4% in 2021 to 4.3% in 2022. It should however stabilize at 4.3% in 2023, supported by a strong rebound expected in Libya and Morocco and sustained growth elsewhere in the region. While in East Africa, growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2022 from 5.1% in 2021.

However, it should recover to reach in 2023 and 2024 the pre-pandemic average above 5.0%. Although East Africa’s production structure is relatively diversified, countries in the region are largely net importers of commodities. They are therefore bearing the brunt of the rise in international prices, in addition to recurrent climatic shocks and insecurity, particularly in the Horn of Africa.

Finally, through a comprehensive analysis of regional growth, the report shows that the five parts of the continent remain resilient with stable medium-term prospects, although they face significant headwinds from global socio-economic shocks. . It also identifies risks and calls for robust monetary and fiscal measures, backed by structural policies to address them.