In Africa, by 2050 between 70 and 88 million people are forecast to be on the move within their home countries due to climate impacts. Reports estimate that climate change could result thousands of African migrants. What is certain is that climate change will create “climate refugees” in Africa. But it is not the main reason for migration in the continent. In Africa, by 2050 between 70 and 88 million people are forecast to be on the move within their home countries due to climate impacts. The vast, vast majority of the displaced will either remain in their own countries as IDPs, or move to neighboring countries, while very few move towards Europe. Interview with Alexander Kjaerum, expert on migration and asylum in Africa:
In Africa, by 2050 between 70 and 88 million people are forecast to be on the move within their home countries due to climate impacts
Reports estimate that climate change could result in more than 700 million Africans. Do you dispute these figures?
The figure is based on a misunderstanding or mis-referencing. The origin of the 700 million is a 2007 Christian Aid report. The scenario is 2050 and not 2030. Its global and not related to Africa. And the 700 million is based among other on 645 million being displaced due to “development projects” – unrelated to climate change.
The misunderstanding is probably because the UNCCD published a factsheet in 2012 where they wrote: “With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world’s population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030, including between 75 million and 250 million people in Africa.
In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people”. In later iterations, these two sentences have been combined into one, which seems to have created the confusion that water scarcity would displaced 700 million in Africa by 2030.
Even if the origin and intention of the number was never to forecast the impact of climate change on displacement in Africa, it could of course still end up being correct. But given that climate change displaced around 20-24 million people annually on a global basis, it is difficult to see this forecast materializing in reality.
The other question is what do you mean by 700 million people displaced by 2030? Will 700 million be displaced that particular year? If not and this is an accumulated number then we need to know the start date; is it 700 million in the history of mankind? Last 10 years? From now? This number has been used since 2012 by many UN agencies without anyone actually clarifying what they mean with this number.
Do you think that inter-African migration (of all types) will increase in the coming years? For what main reasons?
In my work I focus on forced displacement i.e. asylum seekers, refugees and internally displaced persons.
We have developed a machine learning model that can accurately predict the number of displaced people for the coming years. And here we are forecasting significant increases in the number of people displaced in West- and East Africa.
The vast, vast majority of the displaced will either remain in their own countries as IDPs, or move to neighboring countries, while very few move towards Europe. We forecast that the number of displaced in West Africa will increase by 1 million people from end-2022 to end-2024 and in East Africa it will increase by 2 million people.
On top of this we will likely continue to see significant displacement and migration due to climate change, but much of this is expected to be within countries from rural to urban areas.
At the same time its important to recognize that in many instances, climate change can also lead to involuntary immobility as people’s resources needed to migrate is being eroded due to loss of livelihoods.
The African Union’s Migration Observatory has suggested that more than 90% of migration movements are inter-African. Would you agree?
In Africa, by 2050 between 70 and 88 million people are forecast to be on the move within their home countries due to climate impacts
I think all evidence point in that direction and maybe even to a larger extent than 90%.
The recently published Africa Shifts report suggests that by 2050 between 70 and 88 million people are forecast to be on the move within their home countries due to climate impacts, while only 1.2 million are expected to migrate across borders.
So this really underscores the fact that climate change is not likely to drive major cross-border migration in Africa.
Alexander Kjaerum
Alexander Kjaerum is a Global Advisor, Senior Analyst with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC). In this capacity he is responsible for supporting the organization and country operations with making better and smarter use of data and analysis for strategic planning, programming and advocacy. This includes exploring the potential of using predictive analytics and big data to improve humanitarian protection outcomes and leading the flagship Foresight project.
Africa needs a new model of leadership. The political pilgrimage of African government and opposition leaders to Western countries smacks of neocolonial validation. More importantly, it is unrealistic to expect Africa to command the respect of the international community when its leaders are constantly seeking Western validation. No Western politician has ever considered African think tanks as valid platforms to discuss issues that affect their national environment. More than 60 years after colonialism, African leaders and politicians should begin to consciously address the issues that continue to fuel the historical and external manipulation of African domestic affairs for foreign political and economic interests. This is the surest way to promote a world order in which relations between Africa and its global partners are based on mutual respect and the sovereign integrity of nation-states rather than on patronage. New model of leadership for Africa:
Africa needs a new model of leadership
Africa needs a new model of leadership. The political pilgrimage of African government and opposition leaders to Western countries smacks of neocolonial validation. More importantly, it is unrealistic to expect Africa to command the respect of the international community when its leaders are constantly seeking Western validation. No Western politician has ever considered African think tanks as valid platforms to discuss issues that affect their national environment. More than 60 years after colonialism, African leaders and politicians should begin to consciously address the issues that continue to fuel the historical and external manipulation of African domestic affairs for foreign political and economic interests. This is the surest way to promote a world order in which relations between Africa and its global partners are based on mutual respect and the sovereign integrity of nation-states rather than on patronage.
What should it do?
Africa’s development expectations are considerable. To transform Africa socially and economically, it is necessary to reconsider the mode of governance, reinvent leadership, and rethink the training of the continent’s new leaders. Throughout the world today, the complexity of unpredictable phenomena complicates human activity, amplifies the imbalance of economic power and increases inequalities. More than ever, Africa is at a crossroads. What should it do? Of course, it has great natural resources: minerals, energy, and agriculture. It also has the youngest and most numerous population in the world. Nevertheless, it continues to suffer from a leadership crisis.
This prevents it from effectively exploiting and managing its abundant resources while using them efficiently to improve the lives of millions of its inhabitants and achieve development goals. Today, our continent is at a strategic moment in its history. The global health crisis has exacerbated the already multiple and far-reaching challenges, including economic and social threats. Change is causing disasters with increasing frequency.
Armed conflicts, detrimental to peace and security, are not decreasing. There is even a resurgence of an evil thought to have disappeared: the coup d’état. To meet all these challenges, Africa needs to develop its leadership. This leadership will need to support good governance, influence its own development, unlock its economic emergence, and facilitate the achievement of inclusive and sustainable economic growth to meet the goals of Agendas 2030 and 2063.
New leaders to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063
The vision of Agenda 2063 is to have an “integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, led by its own citizens that is a dynamic force on the world stage. Implementing this agenda as well as the sustainable development agenda (2030) involves transformations on multiple levels, including building a vision, defining roles, reorganizing structures, building networks, establishing relationships, and also continuously improving human capital.
African leaders have committed to accelerate the continent’s growth, development and prosperity by 2063. They have adopted several initiatives to support the realization of this agenda. These initiatives provide an opportunity to question the purposes and modes of operation and governance models of institutions. They call for the invention of new ways of doing and thinking. Africa must redefine its priorities.
Leadership is, therefore, an urgent and essential component to achieve these goals. A new leadership, based on a modern vision of the role of leaders, professionals, citizens and partners, as well as on the purpose of organizations, is needed to accelerate and strengthen structural transformation. This will be achieved through regional integration, productive transformation, skills enhancement, and the promotion of innovation and technology.
Developmental and transformational leadership is needed in this era of change to ensure and maintain a high level of commitment. Effort from all sectors is needed, but competent, participatory, accountable, and innovative states and institutions are paramount. New model of leadership for Africa!
What new leadership for Africa?
Development issues in Africa are too complex and confusing to be addressed by traditional cannot be addressed by traditional leadership. The quality of leaders is one of the major issues in the major challenges in the economic emergence of African countries, which are obliged to think about a new generation of leaders, men and women capable of meeting the men and women capable of meeting the real economic, geopolitical, social and environmental challenges environmental challenges that all African countries are facing.
The continent needs a new kind of leadership at the top of governments, institutions, businesses and civil society. A new leadership, endowed with legitimacy first, a catalyst for structural development, capable of initiating the transformation of the continent in all areas: socio-economic, political, environmental, and technological. A leadership that takes up the challenges of food security, population growth, sustainable development and social services, which are, above all, education, health, access to water and sanitation.
Courage for Africa
Africa also needs new leadership that is ready to face the demands of the contemporary world and has the courage to world and with the courage to move Africa away from its heavy dependence on dependence on commodity exports, and with the skills to build and reinvent skills to build and reinvent the continent in a time of complex, dynamic, and unpredictable change. dynamic and unpredictable change. It needs leaders who are aware that that the levers of wealth are in education and institutions, that true wealth goes beyond that true wealth goes beyond mineral and energy resources, but that it comes through work that that the real wealth goes beyond mining and energy resources, but through work that gradually generates capital produced by the quality of human capital and institutions.
Africans also need a leadership that on the one hand appeals more to long-term intrinsic intrinsic long-term needs and less on extrinsic short-term demand, and on the other hand, believes fundamentally in collective intelligence, both technical and emotional, but also emotional intelligence.
More than anything else, Africa expects its leadership to proudly show its proudly show its African identity, which is a bearer of values and meaning, in order to accelerate an economic development, which will have a positive impact on the whole society.
African youth, engine of development and transformation
Africa is rich in its women and men, its youth being the future of the continent. It is essential to invest massively in their scientific and technological education. Investment in education and youth is the best way to change the development paradigm in the continent. There are millions of untapped opportunities in Africa for socio-economic development and improvement of the well-being of its people. It is therefore important that Africa has leaders who can liberate the youth to dare to spread the wings of their creative imagination.
Their formidable genius will then contribute to the construction of a better Africa, the Africa we want. It is up to the leaders to mobilize the youth to promote sustainable lifestyles and a sustainable future. They will also have to teach them to combine thought and action, to be open to movement, to innovation and to the encounter of meaning. Given the right conditions, African youth will play a vital role in creating and promoting influential policies, innovative solutions, and sustainable models for inclusive development. Providing them with the necessary means to realize their projects is of paramount importance today. We must facilitate exchanges at the community, national and continental levels.
Youth for Africa
Providing youth with the channels, resources, and modalities of expression and action best suited to better engagement should be a government priority in Africa. To be developmental and transformational, African leadership must take on societal responsibility, draw from the rich history of the continent, and rediscover the qualities buried in African culture in order to rethink the concept of development. Placing Africans at the center of their vision and action, such leaders will act competently to restore Africa to its rightful place in the competition imposed by new global ecosystem paradigms.
Author: Fatima Arib (Director of the National School of Business and Management (ENCG) Marrakech, Cadi Ayyad University – Morocco, Expert in sustainable development)
Great competition is emerging between the United States, China, Russia and Iran over Africa:Russia, China, and Iran are opening doors for each other to share influence in Africa,Biden administration is beginning to wake up to Africa’s strategic importance. Interview with Irina Tsukerman.
A great competition is emerging between the United States, China, Russia and Iran over Africa. How to explain this craze?
This competition is nothing new, other than increased involvement in the US. Africa is a continent rich with natural resources ranging from fossil fuels to rare earth minerals and phosphates. Rare earths are essential for a range of industries such as military technology as well as renewable production – electric vehicle batteries, and various other emerging technologies. US is heavily dependent for China on these technologies; among the efforts to decouple from Beijing and Beijing’s growing self-isolation and aggression around the world this has become a top priority. In fact, even the Biden administration is beginning to wake up to Africa’s strategic importance, which is why after the African Leaders summit it announced a new more holistic policy shifting away from the limited securitization approach to fighting corruption, building civil society, and engaging in investment opportunity. For now, however, most of the efforts have gone to climate change initiatives and diplomatic efforts to convince several countries to expel Russian mercenaries present there. Russia, China, and Iran are opening doors for each other to share influence in Africa,Biden administration is beginning to wake up to Africa’s strategic importance.
Iran is not being addressed by this strategy at all, even though Iran’s proxy Hezbullah has been active in many countries in Africa since the late 80s and especially in the 90s. Recently, Iran has been investing more than ever in raising its profile in Africa through the recruitment of religious scholars to the Al Moustafa university, the training of Shia militias in countries like Nigeria, cooperation with local terrorist groups such as Polisario, through Hezbullah, arming, training, and politically backing them, and also selling drones to various countries facing civil unrest or border tensions. Iran has also pushed for outreach to major African players such as Egypt through Iraq, but so far with no result.
Russia has had old ties to Africa from the First Cold War, where it has invested significant resources in propping up corrupt regimes and infiltrating the media and spreading Marxist propaganda as Soviet Union. Currently, it is reigniting these old ties and using the Wagner militia and other groups to promote anti-Western rhetoric, help push out France, assist to the best of its abilities against jihadists (with limited and mixed results), lend support to regimes, and gain access to the mining sector, particularly in terms of smuggling gold for the oligarchs and to fund Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.
Great competition is emerging between the United States, China, Russia and Iran over Africa
As for China, its interests in Africa have been strategic for some time. It has used its Belt and Road Initiative and “debt trap diplomacy” to build infrastructure around the country but using its own labor force and taking over airports and other major infrastructure sites through what many Africans now regard as “economic colonialism”. Moreover, China has its sites to building additional military bases in Africa. Africa has attracted other players as well – France is reluctant to leave its traditional sphere of influence; Turkey has been expanding its influence through humanitarian initiatives and support of ISlamists and technocrats, Qatar and UAE have been racing against each other in terms of business investments, access to ports, and support for various governments and factions. Some of these goals complement other players, some are done in conjunction, some are completely independent, and some are conflicting. US, however, for now is not coordinating with anyone in particular.
France seems to be losing its grip on Africa. Several African countries are turning their backs on it. Why do you think this is?
The reason for that is a mixture of failed strategy, perceived colonialism, and involvement of other actors. France, by focusing exclusively on counterterrorism, failed to address the issue of spreading ideological extremism and recruitment, sectarian tensions, weak corrupt governments, human rights abuses, inadequate law enforcement, shortage of economic opportunities, and other factors contributing to the destabilization and security failures inside these countries. Russia, on the other hand, successfully utilized anti-colonialist rhetoric to help undermine France’s image exploiting Marxist ideologies embedded in various states.
France is not seen as having anything advantageous to offer; it is seen as politically exploiting these countries, not taking responsibility for past abuses, and using natural resources and political connections to advance and expand its own political interests and image at the expense of Africans. Although Russia and China are doing exactly the same, they are smarter about it. They have always portrayed themselves as “liberators” or investors, and now having learned from criticism and pushback China is adopting a more mixed partnership approach that is more acceptable and similar to the West.
The exit of France from the Sahel (Central Africa, Mali, Burkina Faso, …) seems to be replaced by Russia through the mercenaries of Wagner, and especially by an influence of Iran. What impact will this have on the expansion of terrorist movements in this region?
Russia, China, and Iran are opening doors for each other to share influence. Wagner mercenaries have been largely unsuccessful against jihadists overall; their job is not to fight extremism but merely to safeguard their limited interests in mines and in propping up cooperative governments.
Iran is very flexible and adaptable in the groups it supports, so long as they undermine target governments and are willing to cooperate. That’s why it works with both Shia and Sunni groups, and with Muslim Brotherhood and even international terrorist organizations and their local branches such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. Moreover, some of Iran’s newfound allies such as Polisario, corrupt, Russia, Algeria, and Europe-backed organization are themselves flexible in terms of membership and als cooperate with other terrorists groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda and various criminal networks, in pursuit of gold and drug smuggling and criminal funding schemes, such as human trafficking. Hezbullah, too, specifically cooperates with drug smugglers and various criminal enterprises to build and expand its network and to fund its operations as well as to assist Iran.
The result is the increasing globalization of terror, growth of exchangeable Iran-trained proxy groups that can be used anywhere in the world, and broaded narcoterrorist conglomerates. This also means that terrorists can get intelligence from state actors and vice versa and could be asked to attack targets anywhere even if it is outside the scope of their immediate interests. Such cooperation creates a very dangerous dynamic and facilitates recruitment in vulnerable areas. Chaos begets chaos, which means these developments compound growing instability and make it even more difficult to fight extremism. Sahel is already becoming a no-go zone, whats’ worse, jihadists are now emboldened by splintered movements in the East of Africa as well, and so militant factions are converging from both ends of the continent.
What are the strategies of the US and China in Africa?
China is increasingly relying on “mixed” investment, learning to imitate Western partnership approach in response to the criticism of the debt trap diplomacy, but also seeking stronger security ties despite overall disinterest in getting involved in local sectarian matters. US so far does not have a clear strategy, though increasingly it is willing to work with whatever governments are in place to safeguard its own interests, prioritizing access to renewables above everything else.
For instance, it has recently signed an MOU with the DRC government to build an independent supply chain for electric vehicles, since DRC controls most of the global supply of cobalt necessary for EV operations and China has a major presence threatening to throttle US access. However, this also means taking sides in political and possibly even military disputes against other allies such as Rwanda because DRC is willing to leverage this obsession with EVs to its own political advantage. US has also promised to make investments in various sectors across the continent, but so far has no clear path to doing so successfully, at least not without addressing other local conditions.
What are the impacts of the war in Ukraine on the relations of African countries with the great powers?
The war in Ukraine created and expanded economic and humanitarian crises for many of these countries – such as food insecurity/shortages, inflation over all, energy price hikes, increased poverty, and reversal of progress for women who have had to leave schools or to enter forced marriage including as child brides as a result of poverty. It has also reversed progress on FGM, access to medical treatment, overall access to education, and other immediate concerns. US and other Western countries have a unique opportunity to assist with addressing social needs and winning hearts and minds, and also to show their broad economic and social investment in African countries beyond climate change pus that many in Africa view as resentment because they do not see themselves as contributors to climate related challenges.
Likewise simply dumping money on climate change initiatives will not offer practical help; especially in corrupt countries that money will simply disappear. US and others need a carefully calibrated engaged approached facilitated through measured partnerships with local verified organizations to implement initiatives that can actually improve life. Otherwise these countries will be forced to embrace competing and malevolent countries who do not necessarily care about quality of life in African countries, only using them – at any cost – to their own advantage.
Who is Irina Tsukerman
Irina Tsukerman is a human rights and national security lawyer based in New York. She runs a boutique national security law practice. She is a member of the American Bar Association’s Energy and Environment and Science and Technology Sections. She is the Program Vice Chair in the Oil and Gas Subcommittee. She is also a member of the New York City Bar Association’s Middle East and North African Affairs Committee and an affiliate member of the Foreign & Comparative Law Committee.
In addition, Irina Tsukerman is the President of Scarab Rising, Inc., a media and security strategic advisory, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Washington Outsider, a project of Scarab Rising, focused on foreign policy, geopolitics, security, and human rights. Irina hosts The Washington Outsider Report program on The Coalition Radio station, and frequently writes about world affairs in diverse US and international publications. She has appeared in the media all over the world as a geopolitical specialist dedicated to actionable analysis, and her writings and comments have been translated to over a dozen languages. Irina is a member of the editorial board of The Maghreb and Orient Courier. She is a member of the New York-based Foreign Policy Association.
Irina specializes in information warfare; she has written and spoken extensively on active measures by Russia, China, and Iran and influence campaigns by Middle Eastern state actors, as well as on the impact of active measures and influence campaigns on the human rights and NGO world; she has also published on a wide range of global issues touching on energy, geostrategy, strategical alliances, Great Power competition and its impact on geopolitics, domestic policy, and business, information security and digital rights/cybersecurity, big tech, terrorism and extremism, as well as issues in intelligence and counterintelligence.
Most recently, Irina was honored for her contributions as a woman leader and a global humanitarian at the World Humanitarian Drive’s Trilateral Trade for Peace Conference in London. Her comments and writings have been translated into over a dozen languages; her latest major appearance was on Australia’s #1 podcast the Red Line to discuss counterterrorism and economic warfare in Mozambique.
