Sudan – 200 dead and severe division of the ruling military junta: Since the 2019 coup, the situation in Sudan has continued to shift. Foreign interference and the despotism of the junta have created an intractable situation. In addition, the whole of Africa is being impacted.
Russia’s role in Sudan
“There is a real concern that Russian equipment and Russian training will allow him (Dagalo) to overwhelm the Sudanese armed forces, which outnumber him,” analysts said.
They stressed that “what appears – once again – is the inflation of Russian influence in most of Africa, especially in Sudan, is the arrival of this case to this point”.
Zahra Al-Wardi, a Sudanese citizen, spoke about the conditions of the Sudanese people and what her family is going through there, saying, “Talk to my mother before I go on the air. They are running out of food. Most of the stores are closed. In fact, all the stores are closed. The banks are closed.” “I talked to some of my relatives who are lying on the ground with their children. thankfully they are not near the barracks where some of the fiercest fighting is going on.”
She continued, “But honestly, there’s a barracks four blocks from my parents’ house now. It’s really scary. I mean, my parents would hate for me to get hit, they’re angry like a lot of Sudanese people are, and in fact, they’re probably better off than a lot of us who are.” They’re out.”
She ended her commentary by saying, “But we must remind viewers that these are the same men who ruined Sudan’s fledgling democracy. We all remember those images of tens of thousands of Sudanese risking their lives, and now these same men are holding a whole country hostage, and it seems like all anyone can do is watch.
Sudan – 200 dead and severe division of the ruling military junta:
Context of the outbreak of hostilities between the belligerents in Sudan
The country’s economy has been in crisis since the secession of South Sudan in 2011 and the loss of revenue from oil fields. The overthrow of the Islamist military regime of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 and the installation of a civilian government four months later led to the beginning of reconstruction.
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was popular with the public and appreciated by Western countries and international donors, resulting in a slight improvement attributed to the country’s return to the circles of the “international community,” the lifting of U.S. sanctions, the reform of the foreign exchange market situation, and the development of a poverty alleviation plan, despite insanely spiraling inflation – it reached more than 359% in 2021, partly due to speculation, the Covid crisis, and political obstacles.
The October 25, 2021 coup d’état threw the country into the abyss. All international aid was frozen, and perhaps to the surprise of the leadership, loans, grants, debt negotiations and technical support were all frozen. Investors who had begun tentatively to return to the country have also withdrawn. Inflation remains unsustainable, exceeding 300% in 2022, before falling in recent months to over 87% in January 2023.
This is a sign that the country is not in a better position, but rather a sign that it is entering a state of economic recession. Simply put, the population can no longer afford even the basics. There is no more demand, so the price increase is slowing down. The military council did absolutely nothing to reform the economy. This coup has stopped the momentum for reform that was in place. Poverty and unemployment have also increased. And it is imperative to return to a civilian government to regain donor support.
Civilians attempt to restore order
And the civilians in the Alliance of Forces for Freedom and Change/Central Council had just that urgency to act quickly, to explain and justify their secret negotiations with the coup generals. The negotiation process was formally held under the auspices of the tripartite mechanism established in May 2022, which includes the United Nations Integrated Transitional Support Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), the United Nations political support mission, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional cooperation organization in East Africa.
However, as with any conflict in Sudan, all parties are involved. The “troika” countries – the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom – also weighed in, not to mention the European Union. Also involved in the intervention is the “Quartet”, composed of the United States, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The result of these months of secret talks was a framework agreement that was officially signed on December 5, 2022. The head of the Military Council and Commander-in-Chief of the army, Major General Al-Burhan, and his rival and deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, signed on behalf of the military side, Shahr “Hemedti”, commander of the Rapid Support Force, which is made up mainly of the assembly of “Janjaweed” forces, Khartoum’s bloody suppletives in its war in Darfur.
Some 40 parties and groupings signed on the civilian side, the largest of which was the Alliance for Forces of Freedom and Change/Central Council, the political arm of the revolution.
Sudan’s battle toll
On Monday, the head of the U.N. Mission in Sudan, Volker Berthes, announced that more than 180 people had been killed and 1,800 wounded in the fighting that has raged in Sudan for the past three days between the army and the Rapid Support Forces.
“The situation is very fluid, so it’s hard to say which way the balance of forces is leaning” on the ground, Perthes told reporters in New York after making a video address to the U.N. Security Council from Khartoum.
In addition, the United Nations announced that the number of casualties has risen to more than 200, while the number of injured has risen to 2,200.
On Monday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities, a return to calm and the engagement of dialogue to resolve the crisis” in Sudan, where heavy fighting has been going on since Saturday between the army and the Rapid Support Forces.
“I strongly condemn the outbreak of fighting in Sudan,” Guterres said, warning that “any further escalation” of the conflict between the army and paramilitary forces “could be devastating for the country and the region.”
Sudan – 200 dead and severe division of the ruling military junta
For the fourth consecutive day, fighting continues between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in the capital, Khartoum, and other areas, while international and regional parties are making tireless efforts to urge both sides to move toward peace.
And the Sudanese army spokesman announced that the army commander, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, had pardoned those who had laid down their arms from the Rapid Support Forces.
For its part, the Rapid Support Forces said that a new revolution began on Saturday and continues to achieve its goals, the first of which is the formation of a civilian government.
“Since last Saturday, a new revolution was launched that has achieved successive victories and still continues to achieve its noble goals, foremost of which is the formation of a civilian government that will lead us to a true democratic transition,” it added in a statement.
The effects of the civil war in Sudan on peace and security on the African continent
Sissi: We hope to retrieve Egyptian forces from Sudan as soon as possible
3 days after the detention of a group of Egyptian forces at the military base in Marawi in northern Sudan by the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in Egypt held a meeting on Monday night, chaired by President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi.
The video released by the “Rapid Support Forces” in Sudan of the Egyptian soldiers detained at the base in Marawi has caused many reactions in Egypt and calls for the need to intervene to save these soldiers and respond to the “humiliating” way in which the “Rapid Support Forces” dealt with them.
The Egyptian president said in a speech after the meeting on “the need for security and safety of Egyptian forces in Sudan,” expressing his hope to restore these forces “as soon as possible.”
Al-Sissi said “elements of the Egyptian army were present under a protocol with the Sudanese army to conduct joint training, and it is not true that Egyptian forces are in Sudan to support one side at the expense of another.”
Armed clashes in Sudan point to increased numbers of displaced people heading to Morocco
Violent clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces have increased the number of Sudanese displaced persons flocking to North Africa, particularly Libya, which has become a border area for reaching European lands after crossing the Algerian and Moroccan borders.
Data available to the electronic newspaper Hespress indicate that the violent events taking place in the “Land of the Two Niles” have prompted new groups to flee the region’s hotbeds of tension, resorting to human trafficking networks to reach Chad and Libya.
Once in Libya, Sudanese IDPs continue their march to Algeria, through which they cross the Moroccan border, where they often settle temporarily in Oujda or Nador with a view to fleeing to the occupied port of Melilla.
Sudanese human rights sources told the newspaper that human trafficking networks have taken advantage of the security chaos in Khartoum to double their illegal activities in recent hours, as hundreds of young Sudanese want to leave the country, which is living under the impact of the army tension.
Most of the Sudanese migrants fleeing to Morocco are from the Darfur region, and are heading mainly to Libya, which is a key crossing point to reach Italy, but the multiplicity of criminal networks on the Libyan coast has forced them to flee to Algeria and Morocco.
The first route for Sudanese immigrants is from the Libyan city of Ghadames to the Algerian city of Debdab, then to Ouargla, then to Algiers, then to Oran, during which a cab can be taken to Maghnia, to reach the “Mount Zoe” that leads to Morocco.